Monday, January 28, 2008

General Election Out look at this Stage of the Campaign

The actual numbers varies from time to time. But there is about 40 percent of the nation that votes Democratic or leans democratic about 33 percent are Republican or leans Republican the rest are the swing independent voters. This group is growing.There is about 27 to 30 percent of them. In every general election the battle is for the Independent voter. This group controls the outcome of almost every election.

Hillary strength is with in the party itself Obama has strong support also with in the party and some appeal out side with the Independent up scale voters. Edwards strength is with white middle class male voters but he is often the second choice for most of the Hillary and Obama supporters and he would have strong appeal to Independent voters in a general election because of his southern roots and economic message. John appeals to many angry voters in all three voting groups This is why he does better in polls against any Republican nominee in a possible general election match up. If Obama receives the nomination he will loose many of the white male voters. Hillary would have the same problem.

Even though Obama has appeal out side the democratic base in a general election he would loose some of the base especially if the Republican nominee is John McCain. Most of these are blue collar white voters that grew up in the 50's and 60's. A very large group that are loyal voters.

Many will say I am overlooking the black vote this groups votes about 90 to 95 percent Democratic, so obama won't gain many votes in that area because they are part of the base and normally vote democratic regardless who it is.

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