History will show one thing about the Iowa Caucus. It can be very unpredictable. Polls really don't mean much especially when you look at the history of the caucus in that state.
As far back as 1980 President Carter and Senator Edward Kennedy were running dead even in most polls at the end of the night Carter won 2 to 1. Just Four years ago it was a fight between Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt. Once again the polls were wrong.
The difficult part for the pollsters is figuring out who is going to participate in the caucus on any given night. This has always been the main challenge in predicting Iowa. A candidate could be ahead in the polls but if his or her support is soft they could be in trouble come caucus night, especially on a cold snowy night in January. A well organized smaller group of caucus goer who are dedicated to their candidate could very easily be victorious. It is my understanding that Edwards support is very strong among his followers also he has one of the best organization in the state. As long as he stays close he will have an excellent chance to be victorious in Iowa.
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